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Macro

GUOSEN Closing Bell (October 19)


MARKET

Chinese market climbed about 4% after opening low, as China’s top financial officials moved to shore up confidence in tumbling stock market. Even though the market was healed a bit, SHCOMP still dropped 2.17% this week. Non-bank Financial and IT sectors led the gains, while no sector fell. Combined turnover for both markets was CNY 283.7 bn, up 20.72% dod.

 

 

Close

% Change

Vol (bn CNY)

%YTD

Shanghai

2550.47

2.58

130.10

-22.88

Shenzhen

7387.74

2.79

156.92

-33.08

CSI 300

3134.95

2.97

110.95

-22.23

ChiNext

1249.89

3.72

53.30

-28.69

 

Sector

Top 1

Led by

Top 2

Led by

Upward-leading

Non-bank Financial

600816

IT

603528

Downward-leading

 

 

 

 

 

NEWS

*China's top banking and insurance regulator Friday said authorities would work to bring the country's financial markets back to "normal and healthy development" after abnormal fluctuations in recent days. Guo Shuqing, chairman of the China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission (CBIRC), said the relatively large and abnormal fluctuations on the financial markets in recent days have been seriously out of line with the fundamentals of China's economic development and inconsistent with the overall stability in China's financial system. (Xinhua)

 

FUND FLOW

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This article is from Guosen Securities Co., Ltd. and is being posted with Guosen Securities Co., Ltd.’s permission. The views expressed in this article are solely those of the author and/or Guosen Securities Co., Ltd. and IB is not endorsing or recommending any investment or trading discussed in the article. This material is not and should not be construed as an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any security. To the extent that this material discusses general market activity, industry or sector trends or other broad based economic or political conditions, it should not be construed as research or investment advice. To the extent that it includes references to specific securities, commodities, currencies, or other instruments, those references do not constitute a recommendation to buy, sell or hold such security. This material does not and is not intended to take into account the particular financial conditions, investment objectives or requirements of individual customers. Before acting on this material, you should consider whether it is suitable for your particular circumstances and, as necessary, seek professional advice.

 


21044




Technical Analysis

Tradable Patterns - Gold (GC) Weekly MACD Positively Crossing


Gold (GC) edged higher yesterday, continuing a week of consolidation as it bumps up against major horizontal resistance (on the weekly chart) as defined by the July 2017 low.  If GC successfully breaks above this key bull-bear battleground, the next notable ceiling will be the 50% Fib retrace of the fall from April.  Near-term caution is warranted though if the market switches to risk-on today, triggering a downside break below GC's 4hr chart's ascending wedge support.  Nevertheless, given last week's bullish break above triangle/downtrend resistance (on the daily chart), any weakness today will likely be limited to the bottom of this week's range.  The weekly, daily and 4hr RSI, Stochastics and MACD are bottomish, rallying or consolidating recent gains.  I am flat after profitably closing a long yesterday and am looking at re-entering long in the green zone (of the daily chart), targeting the red zone by Tuesday.  The amber/yellow zone is where I might place a stop if I was a swing trader (although in my personal account with which I seldom hold overnight I sometimes set my stops tighter).
 
Gold (CME GC Dec18) Weekly/Daily/4hr
 
 
Click here for today's technical analysis on Silver, VIX
 
As seen on Bloomberg, Thomson Reuters, Factset, Interactive Brokers, Inside Futures and Zerohedge, Tradable Patterns was launched to demonstrate that the patterns recurring in liquid futures and spot FX markets can be analyzed to enhance trading performance. Tradable Patterns’ daily newsletter provides technical analysis on a subset of three CME/ICE/Eurex/SGX  futures (commodities, equity indices, and interest rates), spot FX and cryptocurrency markets, which it considers worth monitoring for the day/week for trend reversal or continuation. For less experienced traders, tutorials and workshops are offered online and throughout Southeast Asia.

 

This article is from Tradable Patterns and is being posted with Tradable Patterns’ permission. The views expressed in this article are solely those of the author and/or Tradable Patterns and IB is not endorsing or recommending any investment or trading discussed in the article. This material is not and should not be construed as an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any security. To the extent that this material discusses general market activity, industry or sector trends or other broad based economic or political conditions, it should not be construed as research or investment advice. To the extent that it includes references to specific securities, commodities, currencies, or other instruments, those references do not constitute a recommendation to buy, sell or hold such security. This material does not and is not intended to take into account the particular financial conditions, investment objectives or requirements of individual customers. Before acting on this material, you should consider whether it is suitable for your particular circumstances and, as necessary, seek professional advice.


 
 
 

21042




Macro

Eurex: China Attempts Equity Support, China GDP Marginally Misses Exp.


Morning Briefing October 19th 2018

 

The first key release comes from the Euro Area, with the release of the current account for the month of August, due at 0800GMT. The UK continues to shine this week, even with it being a Friday. However, today's public sector finances data for September at 0830GMT is definitely less interesting than the releases seen earlier in the week. The final key release for Friday is the CPI and retail trade combined in Canada at 1230GMT.

BOJ Governor Haruhiko Kuroda speaks at 0635GMT.

The Euro Area current account previously had a surplus EUR21 bn in July despite a fairly large fall in the goods surplus.

Net borrowing for the month of September relative to September last year is expected to come in at stg4.5bn- however analysts have over-estimated the September reading by 2.09 bn, suggesting a much lower figure could be in the works for September.

In Canada, the CPI y/y rate is expected to fall to 2.7% from 2.8% previously. Retail sales is expected to tick up to 0.4% m/m from 0.3% previously.

At 1600GMT, Atlanta Federal Reserve President Raphael Bostic speaks in Macon. Dallas Federal Reserve Bank President Rob Kaplan speaks in New York at 1645GMT.

On the Saturday, BOJ deputy governor Masayoshi Amamiya speaks in Japan at 0650GMT and at 0330GMT Atlanta Federal Reserve Bank President Raphael Bostic speaking in Atlanta.

Global Economic Trading Calendar

 

Markets

 

US TSY/RECAP: T-Notes operate in the middle of a narrow 4 tick range, with the curve sitting a touch flatter at writing. - The general ebb and flow was dominated by a risk off feel in early dealing, before equity supportive measures/rhetoric from the PBOC and Chinese regulators alleviated some of the negative sentiment. - There was no notable reaction across the major asset classes to the marginal miss in headline China Y/Y GDP. - Eurodollar volume is well above average for this time of day, led by activity in EDZ8.

JGBS: JGB futures moved higher in early dealing, in sympathy with the broader risk appetite trends that had been observed since the onset of the NY afternoon on Thursday, which allowed the yield curve to flatten. - The Nikkei 225 has moved back from worst levels, which allowed JGBs to pare some of their gains, although the curve remains flatter on the day. - The space discounted the latest round of local CPI data, which was virtually in line with exp. - The BOJ left the size of its Rinban operations covering the 10-25+ Year buckets unchanged, the offer to cover ratios can be found below: - 10-25 Year 3.50 (prev. 2.70), 25+ Year 3.52 (prev. 3.16).

AUSSIE BONDS: Futures drew support from a heavy start for Asia-Pacific equities, before edging back from best levels as equity supportive measures/rhetoric from the PBOC and Chinese regulators alleviated some of the negative sentiment, while the space ignored the latest Chinese GDP release. - The domestic 3-/10-Year cash yield differential last trades at 63.5bp, ~1.0bp flatter. AU paper's outperformance vs. Tsys has allowed the AU/U.S. 10-Year yield spread to move back to -50bp.

STOCKS: The major Asia-Pacific regional indices have struggled, ex-China, with the negative lead from Wall St. weighing from the get go. - The Nikkei 225 trades ~1.2% worse off, the ASX 200 has lost 0.2% & the Hang Seng trades 0.4% lower, although activity in Chinese equities allowed all of the aforementioned to operate off of worst levels. - The general ebb and flow was dominated by a risk off feel in early dealing, before equity supportive measures/rhetoric from the PBOC and Chinese regulators alleviated some of the negative sentiment. There was no notable reaction across the major asset classes to the marginal miss in headline China Y/Y GDP. The CSI 300 last deals 0.2% higher. - U.S. index futures have edged higher.

OIL: WTI & Brent added a few cents to settlement levels, leaving the metrics on target for a second consecutive weekly loss, as Wednesday's larger than exp. headline build in U.S. crude inventories nullified the effect of the escalation in U.S.-Saudi tensions earlier in the week. - On Thursday the WSJ noted that "rising crude oil inventories and increased output in the U.S. could push oil prices down in the coming weeks, an internal OPEC report said Thursday. A coming "seasonal scale back in refinery demand...could result in oil stock builds," said an internal market report, which was circulated late Thursday within the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries" and reviewed by The Journal.

GOLD: Gold held above $1225/oz overnight, operating in a $3 range.

FOREX: The FX space experienced a fairly limited start to the final Asia-Pacific session of the week. - The general ebb and flow was dominated by a risk off feel in early dealing, before equity supportive measures/rhetoric from the PBOC and Chinese regulators alleviated some of the negative sentiment. - The "soothing" rhetoric from Chinese policy makers allowed AUD, NZD & CAD to experience some modest outperformance, with familiar levels of medium term support and resistance still in play for the aforementioned currencies' respective USD crosses. - The JPY crosses edged higher, although they stuck to tight ranges, with no reaction to the latest Japanese CPI data, which was virtually in line with exp. - Meanwhile, there was no notable reaction to the marginal miss in headline China Y/Y GDP.

Technical Analysis

 

BUND TECHS: (Z18) BULLISH BREAK

Bulls managed to take out the Oct 2 highs yesterday as well as the 55-dma, which now turns to support. The next upside target comes in at the 160.00 just ahead of current levels, above which opens the Sep 6 high. Bears need to close back below the 55-dma, now at 159.49 to prevent upside momentum from building.

EUROSTOXX50: RECOVERY GIVES WAY

The recovery proved short-lived as the focus returns to the Oct 15 low following yesterday's heavy losses. Below here opens the bear channel bottom at 3150 ahead of up trendline support from the 2012 lows. Bulls need to recover the 3000 level to improve the outlook, but momentum is turning increasingly negative.

Eurex Futures Market Close

 

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MNI subscribers make critical decisions with deeper insight and greater confidence. Pinpoint information and market-moving interviews let them react instantly to market changes and more importantly, anticipate future market moves. MNI reporters are market professionals in the news business. They work like journalists but think like traders. When interviewing Fed officials, our reporters ask the same questions you would ask. They cover the angles you would cover. Write the way you read.

MNI’s news services are now available via the IB Trader platform. Please click here to view our provider page or contact MNI directly on sales@mni-news.com or +1 212 669 6400 for our Americas sales team and +44 207 862 7408 for our EMEA sales team.

This article is from Eurex Exchange and is being posted with Eurex Exchange’s permission. The views expressed in this article are solely those of the author and/or Eurex Exchange and IB is not endorsing or recommending any investment or trading discussed in the article. This material is not and should not be construed as an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any security. To the extent that this material discusses general market activity, industry or sector trends or other broad based economic or political conditions, it should not be construed as research or investment advice. To the extent that it includes references to specific securities, commodities, currencies, or other instruments, those references do not constitute a recommendation to buy, sell or hold such security. This material does not and is not intended to take into account the particular financial conditions, investment objectives or requirements of individual customers. Before acting on this material, you should consider whether it is suitable for your particular circumstances and, as necessary, seek professional advice.


21043




Macro

GUOSEN Closing Bell (October 18)


MARKET

Chinese market refreshed 4 years low and SHCOMP lost 2500 critical level. No sectors gained, while Oil and Coal stocks were the worst performers. Combined turnover for both markets was CNY 235 bn, down 9.03% dod.

 

 

Close

% Change

Vol (bn CNY)

%YTD

Shanghai

2486.42

-2.94

106.58

-24.82

Shenzhen

7187.49

-2.41

133.10

-34.90

CSI 300

3044.39

-2.37

79.70

-24.47

ChiNext

1205.03

-2.18

48.62

-31.25

 

Sector

Top 1

Led by

Top 2

Led by

Upward-leading

 

 

 

 

Downward-leading

Oil

002476

Coal

600997

 

NEWS

*CSRC Said to Ask Beijing Orient Lenders Not to Force Share Sales. Chinese regulators took action to try to prevent a public company’s share pledges from jeopardizing its stability, according to people familiar with the matter, as a market plunge exposes the perils of using stocks as collateral for loans. (Bloomberg)

*HSBC is on track to become the first foreign company to trade on a Chinese bourse under plans by a new stock exchange link between London and Shanghai. In a move that has been in the making for more than a decade, the London-Shanghai stock connect plans to make the bank the first offering of Chinese Depositary Receipts — a tradeable security that reflects underlying shares listed elsewhere. (Financial Times)

 

FUND FLOW

Click here for more information about Guosen.

This article is from Guosen Securities Co., Ltd. and is being posted with Guosen Securities Co., Ltd.’s permission. The views expressed in this article are solely those of the author and/or Guosen Securities Co., Ltd. and IB is not endorsing or recommending any investment or trading discussed in the article. This material is not and should not be construed as an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any security. To the extent that this material discusses general market activity, industry or sector trends or other broad based economic or political conditions, it should not be construed as research or investment advice. To the extent that it includes references to specific securities, commodities, currencies, or other instruments, those references do not constitute a recommendation to buy, sell or hold such security. This material does not and is not intended to take into account the particular financial conditions, investment objectives or requirements of individual customers. Before acting on this material, you should consider whether it is suitable for your particular circumstances and, as necessary, seek professional advice.

 


21041




Futures

Blue Line Futures - Midday Market Minute (10.18.18)


Gold rallies as it stocks tumble.

Futures trading involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. Trading advice is based on information taken from trade and statistical services and other sources Blue Line Futures, LLC believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades. All trading decisions will be made by the account holder. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.

Visit our website at www.bluelinefutures.com to open an account and stay up to date with our research.

Bill Baruch is President and founder of Blue Line Futures. Bill has more than a decade of trading experience. Working with clients he focuses on developing trading strategies that present a clear objective for both long and short-term trading approaches. He believes that in order to properly execute a trading strategy, there must be a well-balanced approach to risk and reward.

Prior to Blue Line, Bill was the Chief Market Strategist at iiTRADER which followed running a trade desk at Lind Waldock and MF Global.

Bill is a featured expert on CNBC, Bloomberg and the Wall Street Journal as well as other top tier publications. 

Blue Line Futures is a leading futures and commodities brokerage firm located at the Chicago Board of Trade. We work with clients that range from institutional to professional to novice and from self-directed to broker-assisted. No matter what type of trader you are, our mission is simple; to put the client first. This means bringing YOU strong customer service, consistent and reliable research and state of the art technology. 

Information posted on IBKR Traders’ Insight that is provided by third-parties and not by Interactive Brokers does NOT constitute a recommendation by Interactive Brokers that you should contract for the services of that third party. Third-party participants who contribute to IBKR Traders’ Insight are independent of Interactive Brokers and Interactive Brokers does not make any representations or warranties concerning the services offered, their past or future performance, or the accuracy of the information provided by the third party. Past performance is no guarantee of future results.

This material is from Blue Line Futures and is being posted with Blue Line Futures’ permission. The views expressed in this material are solely those of the author and/or Blue Line Futures and IBKR is not endorsing or recommending any investment or trading discussed in this material. This material is for information only and is not and should not be construed as an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any security. To the extent that this material discusses general market activity, industry or sector trends or other broad-based economic or political conditions, it should not be construed as research or investment advice. To the extent that it includes references to specific securities, commodities, currencies, or other instruments, those references do not constitute a recommendation by IBKR to buy, sell or hold such security. This material does not and is not intended to take into account the particular financial conditions, investment objectives or requirements of individual customers. Before acting on this material, you should consider whether it is suitable for your particular circumstances and, as necessary, seek professional advice.


21033




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Disclosures

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