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Futures

FX Rundown


Euro (December)

Session close: Settled at 1.17415, down 49 ticks

Fundamentals: The Euro fell out of bed this morning after U.S PPI came in strong and the YoY November read was 3.1%, the fastest growth in nearly six years. Earlier in the morning, the Euro was put on its back foot after German and Eurozone Sentiment data missed expectations. Traders now gear up for tomorrow’s Fed meeting in which they are expected to hike interest rates at 1:00 pm CT. First, CPI data is due at 7:30 am CT and if it comes in as solid as PPI we will see further pressure on the Euro into the afternoon. However, we continue to believe that the Dollar is a ‘buy the rumor, sell the fact’ into the Fed meeting. Lets also not forget that Thursday brings the ECB meeting.

Technicals: Our technical levels continue to work tremendously in the Euro with major three-star support stopping price action in its tracks with a session low of 1.17215. For tomorrow we are looking for a move out above resistance at 1.1820 or below major support to encourage follow through into Thursday. Though we remain long term bullish, a close below 1.1728-1.1730 will signal lower price action in the near term.

Bias: Bullish/Neutral

Resistance – 1.1820**, 1.18875-1.1903**, 1.1942**, 1.19975-1.2019***, 1.2154-1.2180****

Support – 1.1728-1.1730***, 1.1672**, 1.15785*, 1.1481-1.15***

 

Yen (December)

Session close: Settled at .8806, down 6 ticks

Fundamentals: Last night PPI data out of Japan came in strong, however, the currency showed little reaction as much of the focus comes down to this week’s Fed meeting. Strong U.S PPI put pressure on the Yen early but concern over comments from Senator Paul signing the tax bill spiked price action briefly. We continue to feel the downside risk is limited and the Yen is only one small catalyst away from reinvigorating a rally to multi-month highs.

Technicals: Price action appears as if it is trying to bottom against support at .8790-.8801 and the 14-day RSI is at the lowest level in more than a month. The 9-day moving average is attempting to round out and if we can see a move back above there at .8854 that will neutralize the Yen in the near-term and give the bulls a shot at taking it higher immediately.

Bias: Bullish/Neutral

Resistance - .8845-.8854**, .8886**, .8934-.8941**, .9018-.9045***

Support - .8790-.8801**, .8730***

 

Aussie (December)

Session close: Settled at .7558, up 27 ticks

Fundamentals: The Aussie has been the best performing major currency against the U.S Dollar over the last couple sessions. However, part of this is because it was oversold as well as riding the coat tails of the New Zealand Dollar which saw strength due to a changing of the guard behind their central bank. Tonight, RBA Governor Lowe speaks, Home Sales data is due at 6:00 pm CT along with a speech from Assistant Governor Kent. The Aussie will be squarely in the spotlight tomorrow evening with jobs data as well as Industrial Production and Fixed Asset Investment from China.

Technicals: The rally in the Aussie this week is more or less shorts closing positions and now the move back above .7530-.7559 neutralizes the tape completely as a data filled Wednesday gets underway. Watch for a close above or below the pivot to give an edge to either camp.

Bias: Neutral

Resistance - .7595-.7605**, .7645-.7676***, .7726-.7755**, .7824**, .7891-.7893***

Pivot - .7530-.7559***

Support - .7390****

 

Canadian (December)

Session close: Settled at .77695, down 12.5 ticks

Fundamentals: Today was a whipsaw session for the Canadian as it followed the price of Crude Oil. Brent Crude was up about $1 early on the session this morning on news of a pipeline shutdown in the North Sea, but as the day developed and the worries on how long the pipeline will remain out dissipated, Brent Crude finished the session down 1.35. The Canadian followed the path, trading up more than a quarter before reversing about half a penny. However, strong U.S PPI data also played a role in the reversal of the Canadian.

Technicals: Price action continues to battle against major three-star support and we remain long term Bullish, however this is somewhat Neutralized now ahead of the FOMC risk. The early morning rally failed to regain resistance at .7824 and this will be the key level in which the Canadian needs to close out above in order to encourage further buying and for us to become out right Bullish once again.

Bias: Neutral/Bullish

Resistance – .7824**, .7843*, .7862**, 79225-.7960***, .8019-.8035**, .8293****

Support - .7730-.7745***, .7671**, 7550***

 

Futures trading involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. Trading advice is based on information taken from trade and statistical services and other sources Blue Line Futures, LLC believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades. All trading decisions will be made by the account holder. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.

Visit our website at www.bluelinefutures.com to open an account and stay up to date with our research.

Bill Baruch is President and founder of Blue Line Futures. Bill has more than a decade of trading experience. Working with clients he focuses on developing trading strategies that present a clear objective for both long and short-term trading approaches. He believes that in order to properly execute a trading strategy, there must be a well-balanced approach to risk and reward.

Prior to Blue Line, Bill was the Chief Market Strategist at iiTRADER which followed running a trade desk at Lind Waldock and MF Global.

Bill is a featured expert on CNBC, Bloomberg and the Wall Street Journal as well as other top tier publications. 

Blue Line Futures is a leading futures and commodities brokerage firm located at the Chicago Board of Trade. We work with clients that range from institutional to professional to novice and from self-directed to broker-assisted. No matter what type of trader you are, our mission is simple; to put the client first. This means bringing YOU strong customer service, consistent and reliable research and state of the art technology. 

This article is from Blue Line Futures and is being posted with iBlue Line Futures’ permission. The views expressed in this article are solely those of the author and/or Blue Line Futures and IB is not endorsing or recommending any investment or trading discussed in the article. This material is for information only and is not and should not be construed as an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any security. To the extent that this material discusses general market activity, industry or sector trends or other broad-based economic or political conditions, it should not be construed as research or investment advice. To the extent that it includes references to specific securities, commodities, currencies, or other instruments, those references do not constitute a recommendation by IB to buy, sell or hold such security. This material does not and is not intended to take into account the particular financial conditions, investment objectives or requirements of individual customers. Before acting on this material, you should consider whether it is suitable for your particular circumstances and, as necessary, seek professional advice.

 


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Technical Analysis

Technical Take: Silver Sitting on Critical Support


“Silver and gold, silver and gold” ….   Precious metals gold and silver started off strong in 2017 with gains of 5.5% and 10.2% for the month of January, but since then both have meaningfully underperformed equities.  Gold at least has maintained its January gains and is up 7.8% YTD, however silver has given it all back and then some as it is currently down (1.7%) YTD to a last sale of $15.66.  Silver is now at a critical inflection point as today’s intraday low, $15.62, is nearly equal to the YTD closing low of $15.60, and the December 2016 intraday low of $15.63.  Over the last 12-months this has proven to be a clearly defined support line which now is being tested for the four consecutive days with little bounce.  Downside momentum is already extended with the daily RSI now at 27 which indicates over the near term sellers may not yet be ready to break through and hold price down below the $15.60 support.  This week’s close will be important given tomorrow’s FOMC announcement, the weekly candlestick pattern, and whether or not the $15.60 support can hold firm.  Despite the holidays, seasonality trends are unfavorable for December with silver now on pace to finish the month in Santa Claus red in seven of the prior ten years.  Conversely January has finished in the green in seven of the prior ten years.  The adage “know your time frame” is the important silver lining. 

 

Nasdaq's Market Intelligence Desk (MID) Team includes: 

Michael Sokoll, CFA is a Senior Managing Director on the Market Intelligence Desk (MID) at Nasdaq with over 25 years of equity market experience. In this role, he manages a team of professionals responsible for providing NASDAQ-listed companies with real-time trading analysis and objective market information.

Jeffrey LaRocque is a Director on the Market Intelligence Desk (MID) at Nasdaq, covering U.S. equities with over 10 years of experience having learned market structure while working on institutional trading desks and as a stock surveillance analyst. Jeff's diverse professional knowledge includes IPOs, Technical Analysis and Options Trading.

Steven Brown is a Managing Director on the Market Intelligence Desk (MID) at Nasdaq with over twenty years of experience in equities. With a focus on client retention he currently covers the Financial, Energy and Media sectors.

Christopher Dearborn is a Managing Director on the Market Intelligence Desk (MID) at Nasdaq. Chris has over two decades of equity market experience including floor and screen based trading, corporate access, IPOs and asset allocation. Chris is responsible for providing timely, accurate and objective market and trading-related information to Nasdaq-listed companies.

Brian Joyce, CMT has 16 years of trading desk experience. Prior to joining Nasdaq Brian executed equity orders and provided trading ideas to institutional clients. He also contributed technical analysis to a fundamental research offering. Brian focuses on helping Nasdaq’s Financial, Healthcare and Airline companies among others understand the trading in their stock. Brian is a Chartered Market Technician.

This article is from Nasdaq and is being posted with Nasdaq’s permission. The views expressed in this article are solely those of the author and/or Nasdaq and IB is not endorsing or recommending any investment or trading discussed in the article. This material is for information only and is not and should not be construed as an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any security. To the extent that this material discusses general market activity, industry or sector trends or other broad-based economic or political conditions, it should not be construed as research or investment advice. To the extent that it includes references to specific securities, commodities, currencies, or other instruments, those references do not constitute a recommendation by IB to buy, sell or hold such security. This material does not and is not intended to take into account the particular financial conditions, investment objectives or requirements of individual customers. Before acting on this material, you should consider whether it is suitable for your particular circumstances and, as necessary, seek professional advice.


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Futures

Midday Market Minute: eMinis, Crude Oil and Pressure on Gold Prices


Futures trading involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. Trading advice is based on information taken from trade and statistical services and other sources Blue Line Futures, LLC believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades. All trading decisions will be made by the account holder. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.

Visit our website at www.bluelinefutures.com to open an account and stay up to date with our research.

Bill Baruch is President and founder of Blue Line Futures. Bill has more than a decade of trading experience. Working with clients he focuses on developing trading strategies that present a clear objective for both long and short-term trading approaches. He believes that in order to properly execute a trading strategy, there must be a well-balanced approach to risk and reward.

Prior to Blue Line, Bill was the Chief Market Strategist at iiTRADER which followed running a trade desk at Lind Waldock and MF Global.

Bill is a featured expert on CNBC, Bloomberg and the Wall Street Journal as well as other top tier publications. 

Blue Line Futures is a leading futures and commodities brokerage firm located at the Chicago Board of Trade. We work with clients that range from institutional to professional to novice and from self-directed to broker-assisted. No matter what type of trader you are, our mission is simple; to put the client first. This means bringing YOU strong customer service, consistent and reliable research and state of the art technology. 

This video is from Blue Line Futures and is being posted with iBlue Line Futures’ permission. The views expressed in this video are solely those of the author and/or Blue Line Futures and IB is not endorsing or recommending any investment or trading discussed in the article. This material is for information only and is not and should not be construed as an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any security. To the extent that this material discusses general market activity, industry or sector trends or other broad-based economic or political conditions, it should not be construed as research or investment advice. To the extent that it includes references to specific securities, commodities, currencies, or other instruments, those references do not constitute a recommendation by IB to buy, sell or hold such security. This material does not and is not intended to take into account the particular financial conditions, investment objectives or requirements of individual customers. Before acting on this material, you should consider whether it is suitable for your particular circumstances and, as necessary, seek professional advice.


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Stocks

Nasdaq Market Intelligence Desk - Equity Market Insight December 12, 2017


As of 11:45AM ET:

NASDAQ Composite +0.10% Dow +0.55% S&P 500 +0.28% Russell 2000 +0.32% S&P MID 400 +0.1%

NASDAQ Advancers: 1331 Decliners: 922

Today’s Volume (100 day avg) -3%

The Dow is up triple digits this morning, while the Nasdaq and S&P 500 are little changed. Boeing (+3%) and Goldman Sachs (+1%) are supplying the upside support in the Blue Chip Index. A 2 day Fed meeting will kick off today, setting up for tomorrow’s anticipated rate hike, while Fed economists will be looking for clues to update their “dot plot.”

  • November’s PPI (ex Food and ex Energy) was up 0.4% MoM and up 3.1% YoY (largest advance since Jan 2012), suggesting demand is moving at a healthy clip. A majority of the increase was attributed to a 1.0% jump in final demand goods, and led by a 15.8% rise in gasoline prices.
  • Brent crude oil touched a 2.5 year high in early trading on word that cracks were found in a pipeline that delivers about 40% of the UK’s North Sea production, but the gains have since faded on profit-taking.  On this side of the pond the price of heavy crude out of Canada’s tar sand falls to a 3-year low because the pipeline and railcar infrastructure is inadequate for transporting current production.  [WTI -0.5%; Brent -0.4%]
  • Shopping Malls across the United States have been closing at an elevated clip over the past 10 years, as the industry has lost its luster, while online shopping has taken off. Today, a deal in the space has given Shopping Mall stocks a boost and some enthusiasm. French property company, Unibail-Rodamco SE announced they will attempt to acquire Westfield Corp for $16 billion, suggesting “that there is a bid for these malls”, according Jeffrey Langbaum from Bloomberg Intelligence.

 

Nasdaq's Market Intelligence Desk (MID) Team includes: 

Michael Sokoll, CFA is a Senior Managing Director on the Market Intelligence Desk (MID) at Nasdaq with over 25 years of equity market experience. In this role, he manages a team of professionals responsible for providing NASDAQ-listed companies with real-time trading analysis and objective market information.

Jeffrey LaRocque is a Director on the Market Intelligence Desk (MID) at Nasdaq, covering U.S. equities with over 10 years of experience having learned market structure while working on institutional trading desks and as a stock surveillance analyst. Jeff's diverse professional knowledge includes IPOs, Technical Analysis and Options Trading.

Steven Brown is a Managing Director on the Market Intelligence Desk (MID) at Nasdaq with over twenty years of experience in equities. With a focus on client retention he currently covers the Financial, Energy and Media sectors.

Christopher Dearborn is a Managing Director on the Market Intelligence Desk (MID) at Nasdaq. Chris has over two decades of equity market experience including floor and screen based trading, corporate access, IPOs and asset allocation. Chris is responsible for providing timely, accurate and objective market and trading-related information to Nasdaq-listed companies.

Brian Joyce, CMT has 16 years of trading desk experience. Prior to joining Nasdaq Brian executed equity orders and provided trading ideas to institutional clients. He also contributed technical analysis to a fundamental research offering. Brian focuses on helping Nasdaq’s Financial, Healthcare and Airline companies among others understand the trading in their stock. Brian is a Chartered Market Technician.

This article is from Nasdaq and is being posted with Nasdaq’s permission. The views expressed in this article are solely those of the author and/or Nasdaq and IB is not endorsing or recommending any investment or trading discussed in the article. This material is for information only and is not and should not be construed as an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any security. To the extent that this material discusses general market activity, industry or sector trends or other broad-based economic or political conditions, it should not be construed as research or investment advice. To the extent that it includes references to specific securities, commodities, currencies, or other instruments, those references do not constitute a recommendation by IB to buy, sell or hold such security. This material does not and is not intended to take into account the particular financial conditions, investment objectives or requirements of individual customers. Before acting on this material, you should consider whether it is suitable for your particular circumstances and, as necessary, seek professional advice.


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Options

Warning Signs? How to Trade Alibaba Now


Alibaba Group Holding has suddenly become a curiosity in the stock market. Shares seem stuck between $170 and $180 after an extraordinary rally, prompting some investors to wonder if the market is sending them a warning message.

The concern is reasonable for a stock (ticker: BABA) that is up about 102% this year, but investors should use the range-bound lull to their advantage. An investor recently asked if selling put options on Alibaba still seemed like a good strategy, and the answer is an unequivocal yes.

Any weakness in Alibaba’s stock is an opportunity to establish a new position, or to add to existing positions, in one of the most interesting companies in the world.

With Alibaba’s stock at $179, investors can sell Alibaba’s January $177.50 put that expires Jan. 26 for about $7.69. The put was chosen to capture Alibaba’s earnings report, which was released last year on Jan. 24.

By selling the put, investors are positioned to buy the stock at an effective price of $169.81, a price just below the recent trading range. The trade’s risk is if Alibaba’s stock declines far below the put strike price. If that occurred, investors would have to buy the stock at $177.50, even if shares were at $150. Over the past 52 weeks, the stock has ranged from $86.01 to $191.75.

As we have often asserted, Alibaba’s stock is a direct play on the rise of China’s middle class, which may be the eighth wonder of the world. Alibaba has basically created a digital infrastructure and economy. The company is widely known for its online e-commerce retail, but it is also involved in finance, entertainment, and logistics.

In many ways, as we have asserted, Alibaba is like an amalgam of Amazon.com (AMZN), United Parcel Service (UPS), FedEx (FDX), and Goldman Sachs Group (GS). It’s hard to ever imagine a time when selling puts on Alibaba to build or curate stock positions is not an attractive trade.

 

Steven M. Sears is a Senior Editor and Columnist with Barron's. He is the author of "The Indomitable Investor: Why a Few Succeed in the Stock Market When Everyone Else Fails." Mr. Sears previously reported for Dow Jones Newswires and The Wall Street Journal. He has reported upon most major modern financial events, including the Asian Contagion, the bursting of the Internet Bubble, the Credit Crisis, and Europe's sovereign debt crisis. He also was part of exchange executive teams that modernized the U.S. options market, and introduced electronic trading. Interact with him on Twitter @sm_sears.

Get investing analysis that moves stocks and markets—Subscribe to Barron’s for just $1 a week.

This article is from Barron's and is being posted with Barron’s permission. The views expressed in this article are solely those of the author and/or Barron's and IB is not endorsing or recommending any investment or trading discussed in the article. This material is for information only and is not and should not be construed as an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any security. To the extent that this material discusses general market activity, industry or sector trends or other broad-based economic or political conditions, it should not be construed as research or investment advice. To the extent that it includes references to specific securities, commodities, currencies, or other instruments, those references do not constitute a recommendation by IB to buy, sell or hold such security. This material does not and is not intended to take into account the particular financial conditions, investment objectives or requirements of individual customers. Before acting on this material, you should consider whether it is suitable for your particular circumstances and, as necessary, seek professional advice.


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Disclosures

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The material (including articles and commentary) provided on IB Traders' Insight is offered for informational purposes only. The posted material is NOT a recommendation by Interactive Brokers (IB) that you or your clients should contract for the services of or invest with any of the independent advisors or hedge funds or others who may post on IB Traders' Insight or invest with any advisors or hedge funds. The advisors, hedge funds and other analysts who may post on IB Traders' Insight are independent of IB and IB does not make any representations or warranties concerning the past or future performance of these advisors, hedge funds and others or the accuracy of the information they provide. Interactive Brokers does not conduct a "suitability review" to make sure the trading of any advisor or hedge fund or other party is suitable for you.

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