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Options

Vol 411: What's Moving the Market?


Michael Palmer of Group One Trading, takes a look at Vix futures, Fed minutes, inflation, upcoming jobs numbers.

Options involve risk and are not suitable for all investors. Prior to buying or selling an option, a person must receive a copy of Characteristics and Risks of Standardized Options. Copies are available from your broker, or at www.theocc.com. The information in this program is provided solely for general education and information purposes. No statement within the program should be construed as a recommendation to buy or sell a security or to provide investment advice. The opinions expressed in this program are solely the opinions of the participants, and do not necessarily reflect the opinions of CBOE or any of its subsidiaries or affiliates. You agree that under no circumstances will CBOE or its affiliates, or their respective directors, officers, trading permit holders, employees, and agents, be liable for any loss or damage caused by your reliance on information obtained from the program.

Copyright © 2018 Chicago Board Options Exchange, Incorporated.   All rights reserved.

This video is from CBOE and is being posted with CBOE’s permission. The views expressed in this article are solely those of the author and/or CBOE and IB is not endorsing or recommending any investment or trading discussed in the article. This material is for information only and is not and should not be construed as an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any security. To the extent that this material discusses general market activity, industry or sector trends or other broad-based economic or political conditions, it should not be construed as research or investment advice. To the extent that it includes references to specific securities, commodities, currencies, or other instruments, those references do not constitute a recommendation by IB to buy, sell or hold such security. This material does not and is not intended to take into account the particular financial conditions, investment objectives or requirements of individual customers. Before acting on this material, you should consider whether it is suitable for your particular circumstances and, as necessary, seek professional advice.


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Futures

Market Movers: March Crop Report


Never miss out on daily futures and options trading opportunities - Click here to Subscribe to In FOCUS Newsletter for Active Traders.

This video is from CME Group and is being posted with CME Group’s permission. The views expressed in this video are solely those of the author and/or CME Group and IB is not endorsing or recommending any investment or trading discussed in the video. This material is for information only and is not and should not be construed as an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any security. To the extent that this material discusses general market activity, industry or sector trends or other broad-based economic or political conditions, it should not be construed as research or investment advice. To the extent that it includes references to specific securities, commodities, currencies, or other instruments, those references do not constitute a recommendation by IB to buy, sell or hold such security. This material does not and is not intended to take into account the particular financial conditions, investment objectives or requirements of individual customers. Before acting on this material, you should consider whether it is suitable for your particular circumstances and, as necessary, seek professional advice.

 


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Technical Analysis

Technical Take: Equities remain volatile


2018 has certainly been a volatile year, particularly when compared to 2017.  Already this year the S&P 500 has seen ten trading sessions with a gain or loss of 1% or more.  This compares to just eight in all of 2017.  Looking at the wider high-low range, there have already been 15 sessions in 2018 with a range of 1% or more.  This is already 50% greater than the ten times this occurred in all of 2017.  The latter high-low statistic better captures the increased volatility we are seeing in the markets as yesterday the S&P 500 declined a modest 0.6%, however the high-low range was up at 1.7%.  Only once in 2017 did the SPX see a daily range of 1.7%.  In 2018 it has already happened nine times.  Thus if you have not picked up on it by now, this year is not the same as last.  And short term investors looking to navigate the squiggles need to be nimble, know your exits before entry, and likely reduce position sizing in order to avoid getting chopped up and losing capital.  With the US dollar index (DXY) on pace to close in the red for the first time in a week, stocks indices are seeing broad strength.  For the fourth session in a row, the S&P 500 is again testing a key inflection point at the 2,730 – 2,743 range which represents the 20-day and 50-day sma’s, now 2,730 and 2,732, as well as the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement, 2,743.  Above here could trigger short covering and fresh momentum longs, however until then there remains the risk for a retest of the February lows.  Minor support levels are below at yesterday’s low, 2,700, then 2,690.  Until the uncertainty subsides, it may be best to watch this game from the sidelines. 

 

Nasdaq's Market Intelligence Desk (MID) Team includes: 

Michael Sokoll, CFA is a Senior Managing Director on the Market Intelligence Desk (MID) at Nasdaq with over 25 years of equity market experience. In this role, he manages a team of professionals responsible for providing NASDAQ-listed companies with real-time trading analysis and objective market information.

Jeffrey LaRocque is a Director on the Market Intelligence Desk (MID) at Nasdaq, covering U.S. equities with over 10 years of experience having learned market structure while working on institutional trading desks and as a stock surveillance analyst. Jeff's diverse professional knowledge includes IPOs, Technical Analysis and Options Trading.

Steven Brown is a Managing Director on the Market Intelligence Desk (MID) at Nasdaq with over twenty years of experience in equities. With a focus on client retention he currently covers the Financial, Energy and Media sectors.

Christopher Dearborn is a Managing Director on the Market Intelligence Desk (MID) at Nasdaq. Chris has over two decades of equity market experience including floor and screen based trading, corporate access, IPOs and asset allocation. Chris is responsible for providing timely, accurate and objective market and trading-related information to Nasdaq-listed companies.

Brian Joyce, CMT has 16 years of trading desk experience. Prior to joining Nasdaq Brian executed equity orders and provided trading ideas to institutional clients. He also contributed technical analysis to a fundamental research offering. Brian focuses on helping Nasdaq’s Financial, Healthcare and Airline companies among others understand the trading in their stock. Brian is a Chartered Market Technician.

This article is from Nasdaq and is being posted with Nasdaq’s permission. The views expressed in this article are solely those of the author and/or Nasdaq and IB is not endorsing or recommending any investment or trading discussed in the article. This material is for information only and is not and should not be construed as an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any security. To the extent that this material discusses general market activity, industry or sector trends or other broad-based economic or political conditions, it should not be construed as research or investment advice. To the extent that it includes references to specific securities, commodities, currencies, or other instruments, those references do not constitute a recommendation by IB to buy, sell or hold such security. This material does not and is not intended to take into account the particular financial conditions, investment objectives or requirements of individual customers. Before acting on this material, you should consider whether it is suitable for your particular circumstances and, as necessary, seek professional advice.


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Stocks

Nasdaq Market Intelligence Desk - Equity Market Insight February 22, 2018


As of 12:00PM ET

NASDAQ Composite +0.78% Dow +1.34% S&P 500 +1.00% Russell 2000 +1.0% S&P MID 400 +0.78%

NASDAQ Advancers: 1352 Decliners: 812

Today’s Nasdaq Volume (100 day avg.) -7%

 

Energy stocks are higher for the first time since last Wednesday, and have led stocks higher, with the Dow up roughly 300pts this morning. The Dow is still more than 150pts below the highs achieved yesterday after the release of the Fed minutes.  Investors initially read the headlines on strong economic growth as bullish but focused later in the session on the potential for further rate hikes, resulting in an almost 500-point swing in stocks.  Investors continue to witness wider-than- normal intraday price changes, highlighting the fragile environment as inflation concerns and elevated valuations “trump” strong economic data and financial results.  The 2-year Treasury is marginally lower today, down for the first time in the past 9 days, while the widely-watched 10-year note backed away from the psychologically important 3% yield level.

  • Crude oil moved a little higher after both API and DOE data reflect modest inventory drawdowns for the week.  API data reflects a 910k barrel draw in crude while DOE pegs it a little better at 1.6M bbls, and both also show gasoline draws and builds in distillates.  WTI erased earlier losses and now traded with a 0.6% gain on the day. S&P 500 Energy constituent, Chesapeake Energy is up more than 23% this morning after the company announced strong results and significantly reducing their debt over the next year.
  • Ben Carlson from Bloomberg released a piece this morning suggesting equity investors should be more concerned with the climbing inflation over the rising interest rates. He noted, “It would make sense for investors to get spooked by each of these factors from a textbook perspective. Rising rates in fixed-income investments provide more competition for stocks from an asset-allocation standpoint and increase the cost of capital for corporations. Inflation could lead to an increase in wages and input costs, which has the potential to hurt corporate earnings if companies are unable to pass along their increased costs to customers.” He went on to say that, “Yet the end of a rising rate environment (and we don’t appear ending rate hikes anytime soon) coincided with a peak in the stock market that preceded a large decline in a few instances. Rates rose leading up to the 1987 market crash as well as the popping of the dot-com bubble in early 2000. There was also a bear market after the rise in rates in 1966 along with a 19 percent pullback in the summer of 1990.”
  • On CNBC, the Chair of the Council of Economic advisers, Kevin Hassert, said he saw the economy growing 3%.  And in a speech yesterday, Fed Governor Quarles said he anticipates further gradual increases in the policy rate will be appropriate, noting “The US economy appears to be performing very well and, certainly, is in the best shape that it has been in since the crisis and, by many metrics, since well before the crisis,” he said.

Nasdaq's Market Intelligence Desk (MID) Team includes: 

Michael Sokoll, CFA is a Senior Managing Director on the Market Intelligence Desk (MID) at Nasdaq with over 25 years of equity market experience. In this role, he manages a team of professionals responsible for providing NASDAQ-listed companies with real-time trading analysis and objective market information.

Jeffrey LaRocque is a Director on the Market Intelligence Desk (MID) at Nasdaq, covering U.S. equities with over 10 years of experience having learned market structure while working on institutional trading desks and as a stock surveillance analyst. Jeff's diverse professional knowledge includes IPOs, Technical Analysis and Options Trading.

Steven Brown is a Managing Director on the Market Intelligence Desk (MID) at Nasdaq with over twenty years of experience in equities. With a focus on client retention he currently covers the Financial, Energy and Media sectors.

Christopher Dearborn is a Managing Director on the Market Intelligence Desk (MID) at Nasdaq. Chris has over two decades of equity market experience including floor and screen based trading, corporate access, IPOs and asset allocation. Chris is responsible for providing timely, accurate and objective market and trading-related information to Nasdaq-listed companies.

Brian Joyce, CMT has 16 years of trading desk experience. Prior to joining Nasdaq Brian executed equity orders and provided trading ideas to institutional clients. He also contributed technical analysis to a fundamental research offering. Brian focuses on helping Nasdaq’s Financial, Healthcare and Airline companies among others understand the trading in their stock. Brian is a Chartered Market Technician.

This article is from Nasdaq and is being posted with Nasdaq’s permission. The views expressed in this article are solely those of the author and/or Nasdaq and IB is not endorsing or recommending any investment or trading discussed in the article. This material is for information only and is not and should not be construed as an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any security. To the extent that this material discusses general market activity, industry or sector trends or other broad-based economic or political conditions, it should not be construed as research or investment advice. To the extent that it includes references to specific securities, commodities, currencies, or other instruments, those references do not constitute a recommendation by IB to buy, sell or hold such security. This material does not and is not intended to take into account the particular financial conditions, investment objectives or requirements of individual customers. Before acting on this material, you should consider whether it is suitable for your particular circumstances and, as necessary, seek professional advice.


16496




Futures

Midday Market Minute


Bill Baruch shares his thoughts on the recent FOMC minutes and the earlier EIA report.  

Futures trading involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. Trading advice is based on information taken from trade and statistical services and other sources Blue Line Futures, LLC believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades. All trading decisions will be made by the account holder. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.

Visit our website at www.bluelinefutures.com to open an account and stay up to date with our research.

Bill Baruch is President and founder of Blue Line Futures. Bill has more than a decade of trading experience. Working with clients he focuses on developing trading strategies that present a clear objective for both long and short-term trading approaches. He believes that in order to properly execute a trading strategy, there must be a well-balanced approach to risk and reward.

Prior to Blue Line, Bill was the Chief Market Strategist at iiTRADER which followed running a trade desk at Lind Waldock and MF Global.

Bill is a featured expert on CNBC, Bloomberg and the Wall Street Journal as well as other top tier publications. 

Blue Line Futures is a leading futures and commodities brokerage firm located at the Chicago Board of Trade. We work with clients that range from institutional to professional to novice and from self-directed to broker-assisted. No matter what type of trader you are, our mission is simple; to put the client first. This means bringing YOU strong customer service, consistent and reliable research and state of the art technology. 

This video is from Blue Line Futures and is being posted with Blue Line Futures’ permission. The views expressed in this video are solely those of the author and/or Blue Line Futures and IB is not endorsing or recommending any investment or trading discussed in the article. This material is for information only and is not and should not be construed as an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any security. To the extent that this material discusses general market activity, industry or sector trends or other broad-based economic or political conditions, it should not be construed as research or investment advice. To the extent that it includes references to specific securities, commodities, currencies, or other instruments, those references do not constitute a recommendation by IB to buy, sell or hold such security. This material does not and is not intended to take into account the particular financial conditions, investment objectives or requirements of individual customers. Before acting on this material, you should consider whether it is suitable for your particular circumstances and, as necessary, seek professional advice.


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Disclosures

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The material (including articles and commentary) provided on IB Traders' Insight is offered for informational purposes only. The posted material is NOT a recommendation by Interactive Brokers (IB) that you or your clients should contract for the services of or invest with any of the independent advisors or hedge funds or others who may post on IB Traders' Insight or invest with any advisors or hedge funds. The advisors, hedge funds and other analysts who may post on IB Traders' Insight are independent of IB and IB does not make any representations or warranties concerning the past or future performance of these advisors, hedge funds and others or the accuracy of the information they provide. Interactive Brokers does not conduct a "suitability review" to make sure the trading of any advisor or hedge fund or other party is suitable for you.

Securities or other financial instruments mentioned in the material posted are not suitable for all investors. The material posted does not take into account your particular investment objectives, financial situations or needs and is not intended as a recommendation to you of any particular securities, financial instruments or strategies. Before making any investment or trade, you should consider whether it is suitable for your particular circumstances and, as necessary, seek professional advice. Past performance is no guarantee of future results.

Any information provided by third parties has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable and accurate; however, IB does not warrant its accuracy and assumes no responsibility for any errors or omissions.

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